South African banking sector is well-developed and highly liberalized. It is one of the largest and most deregulated sectors within the emerging markets. The sector is experiencing significant growth, defying the global economic slowdown. The banking assets grew at a CAGR of around 19% between 2002 and 2008, far higher than witnessed by the global banking industry, says “South African Banking Sector Analysis�, a recent report by RNCOS.

Our findings show that the South African banks have largely been protected from the direct effects of the global financial crisis. Domestic banks did not invest heavily in high-risk securities or complex instruments, and have maintained a traditional and relatively conservative banking model. They have maintained high lending standards and enjoyed high profitability for a number of years. With low levels of foreign funding, the banks have limited activity outside the African continent.

We have also found that future of the banking sector lies mainly in personal banking (especially the lower end of the market) and the small and medium-sized business sector. The banks need to focus more on expansion in the domestic economy in the coming years. Given the recent boom in mobile phones and internet accessibility, another key area for growth will be the telephone and internet banking.

Our report “South African Banking Sector Analysis� provides detailed analysis of the banking sector in South Africa. It gives deep insight into each of the banking parameters like assets, loans, deposits and payment instruments. Most importantly, the report gives future outlook for each of the important industry aspects (assets, loans, deposits etc) considering the effects of the global economic crisis on base drivers, opportunities and challenges faced by the banking sector.

Additionally, the report contains detailed information of key industry players (both domestic and foreign), their business strategies and their market share. The key players discussed are ABSA Group Limited, FirstRand Limited, Nedbank Group Limited, Investec Limited, Citibank N.A., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Deutsche Bank and ABN AMRO Holding N.V.

1. Analyst View
2. Macroeconomic Analysis
3. Banking Industry Overview
4. Key Performance Indicators
4.1 Loans
4.1.1 Mortgage Advances
4.1.2 Installment Debtors
4.1.3 Overdrafts and Loans
4.1.4 Resale Agreements
4.2 Deposits
4.2.1 Residents
4.2.2 Non-residents
4.3 Bank Profitability and Investment Strategy
4.4 Payment Instruments
4.4.1 Credit Cards
4.4.2 ATMs
4.4.3 Cheque
5. Industry Trends
5.1 Partnership with Fuel Stakeholders
5.2 Private Banking
5.3 FSC and Mzansi Accounts
5.4 Card-less ATMs
5.5 Distance Banking
5.6 Affordability of Housing Loans
5.7 Non-performing Loans
6. Risk Assessment and Ratio Analysis
7. Regulatory Developments
8. Competitive Landscape
8.1 Domestic Banks
8.1.1 ABSA Group Limited
8.1.2 FirstRand Limited
8.1.3 Nedbank Group Limited
8.1.4 Investec Limited
8.2 Foreign Banks
8.2.1 Citibank N.A.
8.2.2 JPMorgan Chase & Co.
8.2.3 Deutsche Bank AG
8.2.4 ABN AMRO Holding N.V.

List of Figures:

Figure 2-1: Real GDP Growth (%), 2008-2013
Figure 2-2: Per Head Personal Disposable Income (US$), 2008-2013
Figure 2-3: Population Growth (%), 2008-2013
Figure 3-1: Bank Assets (Billion ZAR), 2002-2008
Figure 3-2: Forecast for Bank Assets (Billion ZAR), 2009-2013
Figure 3-3: Breakup of Bank Assets (%), 2007
Figure 4-1: Bank Loans and Advances (Billion ZAR), 2002-2008
Figure 4-2: Forecast for Bank Loans and Advances (Billion ZAR), 2009-2013
Figure 4-3: Breakup of Bank Loans and Advances (%), 2008
Figure 4-4: Mortgage Advances (Billion ZAR), 2002-2008
Figure 4-5: Share of Mortgage Advances by Major Banks (2006 & 2007)
Figure 4-6: Installment Debtors (Billion ZAR), 2002-2008
Figure 4-7: Share of Installment Finance by Major Banks (2006 & 2007)
Figure 4-8: Overdrafts and Loans (Billion ZAR), 2002-2008
Figure 4-9: Share of Overdrafts and Loans by Major Banks (2006 & 2007)
Figure 4-10: Loans under Resale Agreements (Billion ZAR), 2004-2008
Figure 4-11: Deposits with Banks (Billion ZAR), 2002-2008
Figure 4-12: Forecast for Deposits with Banks (Billion ZAR), 2009-2013
Figure 4-13: Deposits with Banks by Type (%), 2008
Figure 4-14: Resident Deposits with Banks (Billion ZAR), 2003-2008
Figure 4-15: Resident Deposits with Banks by Type (%), 2008
Figure 4-16: Non-resident Deposits with Banks (Billion ZAR), 2003-2008
Figure 4-17: Income of Banks (Billion ZAR), 2005-2007
Figure 4-18: Net Income of Banks (Billion ZAR), 2005-2007
Figure 4-19: Growth in Interest Income of Banks (%), 2006 & 2007
Figure 4-20: Investment by Banks (Billion ZAR), 2007 & 2008
Figure 4-21: Investment Portfolio of Banks (%), 2008
Figure 4-22: Credit Card Transactions (Billion ZAR), 2002-2008
Figure 4-23: Forecast for Credit Card Transactions (Billion ZAR), 2009-2013
Figure 4-24: Credit Card Debtors (Billion ZAR), 2002-2008
Figure 4-25: Share of Credit Cards by Major Banks (2006 & 2007)
Figure 4-26: Number of ATMs (May 2007 & 2010)
Figure 4-27: Number of Cheque Transactions (Million), 2002-2008
Figure 4-28: Cheque Transactions (Billion ZAR), 2002-2008
Figure 5-1: Africa & World - Growth in High-net-worth Population (%), 2007
Figure 5-2: Wealthy Women Population (Thousand), 2006 & 2011
Figure 5-3: Bank Accounts Penetration (%), 2006 & 2007
Figure 5-4: Forecast for Internet Users Penetration (%), 2009-2013
Figure 5-5: Forecast for Number of Mobile Subscribers (Million), 2009-2013
Figure 5-6: Mortgage Affordability by Household Income (2005-2008 & Jun 2008)
Figure 5-7: Impaired Advances (%), Jan 2008 to Jan 2009
Figure 6-1: Banking Sector Risk (Aug 2008 to Jan 2009)
Figure 6-2: Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (%), 2004-2008
Figure 6-3: Loan-to-Asset Ratio (%), 2003-2008
Figure 6-4: Capital Adequacy Ratio (%), 2006-2008

List of Tables:

Table 3-1: Breakup of Bank Assets (Billion ZAR), 2002-2007
Table 8-1: Top Ten Domestic Banks by Assets (Million ZAR), H1 2008
Table 8-2: Top Ten Foreign Banks by Assets (Million ZAR), H1 2008