Taiwan's mobile subscribe base is forecast to rise from 26 million in 2009 to 28 million in 2014, driven largely by multiple SIM accounts, reports IE Market Research (IEMR).

"Chunghwa Telecom will continue to be the largest operator in Taiwan; our model predicts that Chunghwa Telecom's subscriber base will increase from 9.1 million in 2009 to 10 million in 2014. Taiwan Mobile will remain in the second place with 7.1 million subscribers in 2014, and Far EasTone will remain in the third place with 6.2 million subscribers in 2014." said Nizar Assanie, Vice President (Research) at IEMR.

"Our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU will decline from TWD 700 in 2009 to TWD 660 in 2014. We forecast that Data ARPU will account for 22% of this overall ARPU (i.e. Monthly Data ARPU will be approximately TWD 145) in 2014. We forecast that monthly ARPUs at Chunghwa Telecom, Taiwan Mobile, and Far EasTone will be TWD 650, TWD 650, and TWD 690 respectively in 2014," said Mr. Assanie.

The forecasting model predicts that subscriber market shares of Chunghwa Telecom and Taiwan Mobile will be increasing slightly over the next several years to reach 35.8% and 25.3% respectively in 2014. Given the latest quarter data, IEMR expects that market shares of Far EasTone, Fitel, APT, and VIBO will be approximately 22.3%, 2.5%, 9.5%, and 4.6% respectively in 2014.

They also predict that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA / reported revenue) will decrease from 40.1% in 2009 to 38.1% in 2014. At the operator level, Chunghwa Telecom will continue to enjoy the highest profitability in Taiwan's mobile operator space. IEMR expects that Chunghwa Telecom's EBITDA margin will be about 44% in 2014 compared to 32% at Taiwan Mobile and 38% at Far EasTone.